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The Eurozone Crisis: Four Potential Scenarios

The following is a summary of the views of Mike Story, Economist at Western Asset Management.

Scenario 1: No Eurozone Restructuring
Scenario 2: Orderly Eurozone Restructuring
Scenario 3: Disorderly Eurozone Restructuring (unlikely, but possible)
Scenario 4: Eurozone Implosion (extremely unlikely)

The Eurozone Crisis: Four Potential Scenarios

Eurozone Bond Crisis by BNP Paribas

Commentary on recent developments in the eurozone bond crisis. The main points of the note are:

Market fears of Italian, Spanish defaults look overdone
Greek medium-term issues remain unsolved
Risks of disorderly process have increased

Download the commentary below (for registered user only)

Eurozone Bond Crisis by BNP Paribas

Last Updated on Monday, 22 August 2011 10:37

Europe in the Balance - by Legg Mason

Western Asset Management, Legg Mason's largest fixed income specialist, looks at the background to the creation of the euro and assesses its prospects for the future.

The euro was created in 1999. Despite a clear trend toward greater exchange-rate flexibility during the second half of the 20th century, the countries of Western Europe chose to go against the global consensus, forming the largest network of fixed exchange rates since the gold standard. Seventeen countries with a combined population of more than 325 million fixed their exchange rates to one another using the most durable – some say irreversible – means possible: adopting a common currency managed by a single central bank.

Theories suggest that this was the wrong decision. (Read more)

Last Updated on Monday, 22 August 2011 10:36

A Fundamental Look at the End of Quantitative Easing 2

In September 2010, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated his intentions to deploy a second round of Quantitative Easing (“QE2”), triggering sustained equity market rallies (S&P500 has moved up about 30% since his comments), and improved economic outlook.

Last week, Mr Bernanke confirmed that the QE2 programme will end in June 2011 and a third round of quantitative easing is off the table for now.

Download the Commentary from UOB Asset Management (For Registered User Only)

UOBAM A Fundamental Look at the End of Quantitative Easing 2

Last Updated on Monday, 22 August 2011 10:38

Templeton Bond maintains winning streak; bets on Emerging Market Bonds, Currencies

High-profile bond fund manager Michael Hasenstab, who bagged six individual awards at last year’s The Edge-Lipper Singapore Fund Awards, proved that he isn’t just a one-hit wonder after securing another half-a-dozen awards at this year’s event on April 12.

That was the most number of awards won by an individual portfolio manager, giving all his managed funds — Templeton Asian Bond, Emerging Markets Bond, Global Bond and Global Total Return — the honours in the Bond Asia Pacific, Bond Emerging Market Global and Bond Global categories.

The 37-year-old, San Mateo, California-based Hasenstab, who is Franklin Templeton’s co-director of international fixed income and oversees more than US$100 billion ($126 billion) in assets, attributes his success and consistent performance to his contrarian and flexible approach to bond investing.

Below are the insights from him

Last Updated on Sunday, 21 August 2011 19:13